I was quoted on Post Tribune and housing blogs today.
Daltons Briefs Blog
Monday, November 27, 2006
Monday, November 06, 2006
Election Eve Predictions
Now, I'll catch all kinds of flack for offering my predictions and potentially affecting the results of the election. But what's the point of predicting after the fact? Check out good Post Tribune coverage today.
County Commissioner - Much disliked Bob Harper will be easily re-elected by a sizable margin of probably 60-40. This says nothing of his actual policies it basically says that the republicans didn't run any kind of campaign against him. Sadly this also means that developers and builders better realize that he won round one and signifigantly slowed the pace of new developing here. Most developments will have to be in a town or city in the next 2 years.
County Council - I see Bucko, Murphy, Poporad, and Sulski winning. This puts the council 4-3 in Republican hands. Expect to see a fight between Carmichael and Burge for council presidency. My nod to Burge, a new style pragmatic leader. Look for Murphy as plan commission appointment and the only smart vote on said august body. For those of you not tracking, the county plan commission will spend quite a bit of money this year and next defending poor decisions and laws that they didn't follow.
Auditor - Murphy in a landslide, Republicans cleaned their own house here of major potential problems. This opens the Treasurer for appointment by caucus, with one very obvious candidate.
Clerk - Fish
State Reps - Look for Soliday to hold Ralph seat easily 55-45 even though some Graham polls have tricked her into thinking she's leading on an anti-Daniels campaign. Look for Cheney to get his last return ticket to the House by edging Buhman 51-49. He's all but done, and will probably retire before serving out this term.
State Senate - Brewer just didn't have the guns to go after Harper and company to unseat Tallian. Tallian is a terrible choice for Northwest Indiana, but Harper's running the show right now.
Republicans will hold the state senate and state house. Rokita and company will get re-elected easily. Daniels will have withstood his greatest attacks for having done the unthinkable, he actually did what he said he'd do!
County assessor will be a pick up for Republicans, with Sexton winning in a close call, maybe even a recount. This is the second phase of the Republican purging of their own house in anticipation of gaining the commissioners in 2008.
Conover will win handily for Center Trustee over Jay Leno-like Essany. Look for Essany to keep trying to find a way into politics and perhaps pick up an appointment to a commission as paybacks for shooting at Conover and staying out of Butterfield's way in the mayoral campaign.
Expect Knoblock to resign after the first of the year, allowing Dan Whitten to be appointed to the commissioners. This will cement the fragile alliance that allowed Harper to control all county actions for the last two years. Of course this sets up a pretty epic battle in 08 for control of the commissioners with all the pressure mounted on this one seat. Some rumors suggest Evans resigning too late in 2007 so that another Republican for the north stronghold can gear up for a run.
With his re-election behind him, Harper will allow the inevitable sale of the hospital and will publicly endorse Butterfield for mayor in Valpo against Costas. Costas will also find a fight in the primary from a council member who thinks he's spent too much on fixing roads.
County Commissioner - Much disliked Bob Harper will be easily re-elected by a sizable margin of probably 60-40. This says nothing of his actual policies it basically says that the republicans didn't run any kind of campaign against him. Sadly this also means that developers and builders better realize that he won round one and signifigantly slowed the pace of new developing here. Most developments will have to be in a town or city in the next 2 years.
County Council - I see Bucko, Murphy, Poporad, and Sulski winning. This puts the council 4-3 in Republican hands. Expect to see a fight between Carmichael and Burge for council presidency. My nod to Burge, a new style pragmatic leader. Look for Murphy as plan commission appointment and the only smart vote on said august body. For those of you not tracking, the county plan commission will spend quite a bit of money this year and next defending poor decisions and laws that they didn't follow.
Auditor - Murphy in a landslide, Republicans cleaned their own house here of major potential problems. This opens the Treasurer for appointment by caucus, with one very obvious candidate.
Clerk - Fish
State Reps - Look for Soliday to hold Ralph seat easily 55-45 even though some Graham polls have tricked her into thinking she's leading on an anti-Daniels campaign. Look for Cheney to get his last return ticket to the House by edging Buhman 51-49. He's all but done, and will probably retire before serving out this term.
State Senate - Brewer just didn't have the guns to go after Harper and company to unseat Tallian. Tallian is a terrible choice for Northwest Indiana, but Harper's running the show right now.
Republicans will hold the state senate and state house. Rokita and company will get re-elected easily. Daniels will have withstood his greatest attacks for having done the unthinkable, he actually did what he said he'd do!
County assessor will be a pick up for Republicans, with Sexton winning in a close call, maybe even a recount. This is the second phase of the Republican purging of their own house in anticipation of gaining the commissioners in 2008.
Conover will win handily for Center Trustee over Jay Leno-like Essany. Look for Essany to keep trying to find a way into politics and perhaps pick up an appointment to a commission as paybacks for shooting at Conover and staying out of Butterfield's way in the mayoral campaign.
Expect Knoblock to resign after the first of the year, allowing Dan Whitten to be appointed to the commissioners. This will cement the fragile alliance that allowed Harper to control all county actions for the last two years. Of course this sets up a pretty epic battle in 08 for control of the commissioners with all the pressure mounted on this one seat. Some rumors suggest Evans resigning too late in 2007 so that another Republican for the north stronghold can gear up for a run.
With his re-election behind him, Harper will allow the inevitable sale of the hospital and will publicly endorse Butterfield for mayor in Valpo against Costas. Costas will also find a fight in the primary from a council member who thinks he's spent too much on fixing roads.
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