Monday, December 31, 2007
I think he was leaning toward strong on terror and international issues for this pick. Of course John McCain is the right choice if one is concerned about internatinal issues.
MITT ROMNEY, JOHN MCCAIN, 2008 HOMEPAGE CAMPAIGN BOX, HORSERACE
Now what? Who will do what to solidify some support?
So, I stay put with McCain at 73% who started where he still is. Go to Presidential Selector
1. Theoretical Ideal Candidate (100%)
2. Mitt Romney (82%) Information link
3. Alan Keyes (80%) Information link
4. Tom Tancredo (withdrawn, endorsed Romney) (80%) Information link
5. Chuck Hagel (not running) (75%) Information link
6. Duncan Hunter (73%) Information link
7. John McCain (73%) Information link
8. Sam Brownback (withdrawn, endorsed McCain) (73%) Information link
9. Stephen Colbert (campaign halted) (71%) Information link
10. Newt Gingrich (says he will not run) (70%) Information link
11. Rudolph Giuliani (62%) Information link
12. Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) (61%) Information link
13. Mike Huckabee (61%) Information link
14. Kent McManigal (campaign suspended) (60%) Information link
15. Fred Thompson (58%) Information link
16. Ron Paul (54%) Information link
17. Tommy Thompson (withdrawn, endorsed Giuliani) (53%) Information link
18. Michael Bloomberg (says he will not run) (48%) Information link
19. Bill Richardson (45%) Information link
20. Hillary Clinton (41%) Information link
21. Joseph Biden (39%) Information link
22. Christopher Dodd (37%) Information link
23. Al Gore (not announced) (36%) Information link
24. John Edwards (36%) Information link
25. Barack Obama (35%) Information link
26. Wesley Clark (not running, endorsed Clinton) (32%) Information link
27. Mike Gravel (29%) Information link
28. Dennis Kucinich (26%) Information link
29. Alan Augustson (campaign suspended) (13%) Information link
30. Elaine Brown (4%) Information link
Saturday, December 29, 2007
The Honarable Senator Mccain won't stoop to Romney levels with negative attack ads
Who do you want handling Pakistan and India and Iraq and Iran? Hillary? How about Romney? No, you want a great leader like John McCain
For my thoughts, for what they are worth, John McCain is the only candidate that can be reasonably expected to beat Hillary. That's the key.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
“The death of Benazir Bhutto underscores yet again the grave dangers we face in the world today and particularly in countries like Pakistan, where the forces of moderation are arrayed in a fierce battle against those who embrace violent Islamic extremism.“Given Pakistan's strategic location, the international terrorist groups that operate from its soil, and its nuclear arsenal, the future of that country has deep implications for the security of the United States and its allies. America must stand on the right side of this ongoing struggle.“In my numerous visits to Pakistan - to Islamabad, to Peshawar, even to the tribal areas of Waziristan - I have seen first hand the many challenges that face the political leadership there, challenges so graphically portrayed by today's tragedy. There are, in Pakistan, brave individuals who seek to lead their country away from extremism and instability and into the light of a better day. America, I believe, must do all we can to support them.”
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Posted by: Michael Medved at 12:56 AM
With Iowa Caucuses only one week away, the latest poll from ARG (American Research Group) delivered huge surprises for both Republicans and Democrats.
On the Democratic side, a tight-as-a-tick three way race (between Hillary, Obama and Edwards) has turned into a Clinton blow-out: the survey of 600 likely Democratic caucus goers (completed on December 23rd) showed Hillary with a commanding 34%, to Edwards’ 20% and Obama’s disappointing 19%. If she wins Iowa with that sort of margin (after the relentless focus on the state by her two rivals) she will wrap up the nomination for all intents and purposes, and become unstoppable in other early primaries..
Meanwhile, as the Democrats watch the New York senator reasserting her status as clear front-runner, the Republican field looks more muddled than ever before. In the previous survey, Mike Huckabee held a substantial 11% lead over his chief opponent Mitt Romney in a two-man race that left their rivals far behind. The new ARG poll (surveying 600 likely Republican caucus goers) shows erosion in Huckabee’s support along with sudden and unexpected strength from John McCain --a candidate who had written off Iowa several months ago and devoted no visible time or money to the Hawkeye state. For the first time, the GOP contest in Iowa looks like a startlingly close three-way battle, with 23% for Huckabee, 21% for Romney, and 17% for McCain. When combined with all the recent polls from New Hampshire – which show the Arizona senator either tied for the lead with Romney or running a close second – the new Iowa numbers reflect undeniable momentum for a candidate whose campaign a few weeks ago looked disorganized, moribund, under-funded and irrelevant.
What’s behind McCain’s Big Mo?
Two factors figure most prominently:
1) Negative advertising and nasty attacks have damaged his principal competitors. Three weeks ago, Mitt Romney began unleashing a series of slashing attacks against Iowa front-runner Mike Huckabee, focusing on the former Arkansas governor’s “record” on illegal immigrants (Huckabee once supported an unsuccessful drive to allow children brought to Arkansas illegally to compete with their classmates for university scholarships), and clemency for criminals (he generated intense controversy with his pardons and commutations for serious lawbreakers). Romney’s negativity produced predictable results--: driving down Huckabee’s numbers without winning new fans for Mitt. In multi-candidate contests, attacks often damage both the target of the assaults and their initiator, benefiting other contenders. In Iowa, some potential caucus goers may feel weary and wary of the nasty tone of the campaign, feeling disgusted with both Romney and Huckabee (despite the fact that the former Arkansas governor has tried for the most part to maintain a positive approach). McCain, by contrast, not only looks like he’s above the battle, but absent from it – stirring up little or no controversy in the state because he’s not competing. In the same way, prior sniping between Mitt and Rudy (remember the cringe-inducing exchange about “sanctuary city” vs. “sanctuary mansion”?) helped fuel Huckabee’s rise several weeks ago. A candidate who roughs up his opponent may indeed damage his rival (as Romney apparently has damaged Huckabee) but in the process he makes himself look desperate and un-Presidential – especially when he’s delivering the attacks in person, rather than using surrogates.
2) In the last week before the caucuses, voters are finally taking a serious look at which candidate represents the most plausible commander-in-chief. McCain’s biggest advantage in Iowa, New Hampshire and across the country involves his military background, personal heroism in Vietnam, and courageous consistency concerning the Iraq War. The unmistakable success of the surge (even Harry Reid now admits that the new policy has delivered big time military progress) validates McCain’s leadership and underlines his expertise on defense and foreign policy. A month before making up their minds, citizens may cast about for a “fresh face” or an “agent of change,” but when they face a fateful decision on caucus night or primary day they generally prefer a president who’s ready to lead the ongoing war on Islamo-Nazi terror from day one. This factor undoubtedly helps to explain Hillary’s sudden rise in Iowa – as pathetic as her national security credentials may seem to her critics, she’s clearly more prepared to take command in the Oval Office than Obama or Edwards. By the same token, it’s vastly easier to imagine McCain leading our military than Huckabee or Romney. Even though Mitt earns points as a successful business executive, his slick leadership of the Winter Olympics can’t compare with McCain’s history as a combat veteran and long-time Congressional leader on military issues and strategy. If his rivals ever wanted to undermine Romney’s defense policy credibility, they need only fashion a TV ad replaying one of Mitt’s major gaffes from the debates: asked about the President’s authority to unleash a strike against Iran, the former governor suggested that his first priority would be to meet with his lawyers. McCain is unlikely to turn negative at this stage in the campaign and to recall that disquieting interchange (since the Arizona solon has gained so much from his dignified, grown-up, above-the-skirmish posture). But an increasingly desperate Giuliani might well challenge Romney’s preparation for confronting our enemies (Rudy’s new slogan – “Tested. Ready. Now.”—seeks to re-focus voter attention on his own admirable record of fighting crime and confronting terrorism).
Despite the powerful factors behind John McCain’s new found strength, it’s still unlikely that he could actually win the Iowa Caucuses. He boasts only a flimsy, rudimentary organization in the Hawkeye State, while Huckabee and (especially) Romney should fare much better in the “ground game” that may determine victory. Both former governors boast the manpower strength to overcome the challenge of dragging their people out of the comfort of home on a cold Thursday night (next Thursday, as a matter of fact) to spend significant time in a neighbor’s living room.
Nevertheless, one more joker in the deck might yet assist McCain at the last minute. Under caucus rules, if a candidate draws less than 15% of the participants in any local neighborhood, the votes won’t register for him and his supporters get the chance to support their second choice. In the latest poll, Rudy Giuliani runs fourth and pulls 14% in Iowa-- meaning that in many precincts he’ll win support, but not enough to allow the votes to go to him. If Giuliani regularly finishes out of the running in local caucuses with, say 6% to 14%, then his voters can easily decide the outcome. For several reasons, Rudy backers should prove far more willing to throw their support to McCain than to Huckabee or Romney. For one thing, Giuliani voters will likely view terrorism and military strength as their chief concerns—focusing on issues that constitute the very heart of McCain’s appeal. Moreover, people who are drawn to Rudy won’t likely be swayed by the social issues that animate Huckabee’s legions, or the bombastic hard-line on immigration that’s been a big focus of the Romney campaign in Iowa. Even if McCain makes no further progress in statewide polls – remaining just behind the frontrunners (with 17% to their 23% and 21%, respectively) he could plausibly win the Iowa caucuses, or at least finish a strong second, by winning second-choice votes from Rudy’s backers. Either way, he’d get a powerful boost for New Hampshire (just five days after the caucuses) and beyond.
With just seven days to go, the race remains shockingly fluid and unpredictable. If Romney wins his twin wars (Iowa and New Hampshire) against his two challengers (Huckabee and McCain) he’ll be tough to beat for the nomination—and could cruise to victory as a lavishly well-funded, magnetically mediagenic golden boy candidate. If, on the other hand, he loses both early states (despite his prodigious investment of time and money) he looks instead like a golden turkey and he’s probably through. On the other hand, if Huckabee prevails in two of the early contests (where he could win both Iowa and South Carolina very plausibly) he may well win the nomination. McCain must win in New Hampshire and Rudy must win in Florida – otherwise they’re each out of the running. Thompson (who’s rapidly fading in polls despite his much improved performance as a candidate) needs a miracle win in South Carolina to stay in the race – otherwise, insider gossip suggests he’ll drop out and endorse one of his best friends from the Senate, John McCain (provided that the Arizona senator is still a factor).
Meanwhile, McCain needs to succeed in his must-win New Hampshire struggle, and then knock off one other early state before “Tsunami Tuesday” on February 5th; South Carolina (with an abundance of military veterans) and Michigan (where he beat George W. Bush handily eight years ago with the aid of independents) represent his best bets.
If the white-thatched Arizonan somehow beats the odds and scores an upset win in Iowa, it’s entirely possible that he sweeps to early victory and unites the party. Romney might well drop out if he lost both Iowa and New Hampshire (or else fight on to Michigan, Nevada and Florida, badly weakened). Thompson (as mentioned above) would almost certainly leave the race if he posted a weak showing in South Carolina. Huckabee might continue to compete (as a regional candidate with a primarily Southern and rural base) as would Rudy (who must somehow maintain the nation’s attention until the February 5th primaries in California, New York, New Jersey and other big states provide him with sympathetic settings for his urban appeal).
I guess it's possible I'll get an email telling me that I quoted too liberally, but this was a very well written post, and I couldn't have said it better than Mr. Medved.
"Over the past few weeks, I’ve received more-than-sporadic emails from early and serious Rudy supporters ready to jump ship to McCain, largely to stop Romney. McCain is dangerous to Rudy because Rudy’s votes are directly transferable to McCain in a way they aren’t to any other candidate. If momentum shifts to one, the other one suffers."
Now that's some serious prediction, and the "more than sporadic" emails from Rudy supporters saying they may jump to McCain is worth noting.
John McCain 47.0
Mitt Romney 44.8
Some have suggested that this pollster isn't the best, but trust me, the Romney people are shaking in their boots
Secondly, I think the Huckabee people are starting to quake too. McCain is gaining ground in Iowa with a possible second place there! Now Michigan and South Carolina become really big.
"Another good piece of news for McCain: according to Rasmussen, the Arizona Senator is viewed more favorably now than any other candidate running for President in either party. That’s the most positive rating of any Presidential candidate in either party (see ratings and other key stats for all Republican and Democratic candidates). McCain also has the lowest level of core opposition among the leading candidates—just 33% of voters say they will definitely vote against him if he is on the ballot.As noted in a recent analysis, it’s a good time to be John McCain, He has increased his support in Iowa and is within a few points of the lead in New Hampshire." (Source: McCain Victory 08)
Watch for a 2nd place finish in Iowa (that's my prediction)
"If you look at Pollster.com's chart of Iowa polling for the GOP primary, you can see that with Rudy and Fred Thompson currently dropping in the state, McCain stands at least a shot at coming in third, behind Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. For McCain to come in third in a state he'd almost entirely given up on in advance would be a clear victory for him. (Source: http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/12/mccain_planning_campaign_swing_in_iowa.php)
Monday, December 24, 2007
John McCain's life has always been framed by his legendary Navy forebears – the
John McCain's white hair looks thin and wispy as he jokes with his son before
Sunday, December 23, 2007
clipped from race42008.com
I took this comment straight from a post on McCain vs. Romney and had to dig down more than 100 comments to get to someone suggesting that former Speaker Gingrich agrees with McCain.
December 22nd, 2007 at 11:30 am
look what i just found! Newt Gingrich agrees with McCain on torture…http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMLA33_G-hM&NR=1
stunning to put it mildly.
Will we see Newt jump back in the race, at least from a support or endorsement position?
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Romney is in free fall and McCain seems to be picking up steam
What's next? 30% or 35% for McCain?
Now he's going to need similar results in Florida and South Carolina
American Research Group, Inc.
Presidential Primary Preference:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state shows Romney with 31%
Two things really moved me at the luncheon. The first was when Dr. Kissinger
"But what if water-boarding some terrorist would save thousands of lives?" Same
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
"As schisms in the GOP become more pronounced and erupt into a low-intensity civil war, a quick look at the party's factions will be useful for future scorekeeping."
Kos goes on to list the four major groups proposed within the party.
- Corporate Cons
Who has the leadership ability to pull all the factions together to beat Hillary?
Who will hand Hillary the President?
With Romney locked in a battle with Huckabee in Iowa, and Huckabee locked in a battle with Guiliani in Florida the race is tightening and second tier candidates losing their appeal. Basically there are only four candidates at this point.
I support McCain, no surprise there, but here's my prediction for the first couple states:
- Huckabee will narrowly win Iowa over Romney, placing great stress on Romney to show a win somewhere for all the money he's spent.
- McCain will narrowly win New Hampshire, again putting second place Romney in trouble in public perception, where does he get a win? Ron Paul in third will continue to sap Fred Thompson's hopes of a recovery on any front.
- Now, out on a ledge, Huckabee will win Florida with Guiliani second and McCain picking up third on a surge following New Hampshire. Guiliani is in trouble with conservatives who feel he is now less likely to able to beat Hillary, but he still has the money to keep fighting it out thru at least Super Tuesday.
- South Carolina - wow what a tossup, I see McCain getting the military establishment and Huckabee the strong evangelical. Romney sliding quickly and Pat Robertson's endorsement of Guiliani still looking pretty foolish. I'll call it for McCain and suggest that following South Carolina the second tier candidates will begin to drop out and endorse first tier candidates.
That's it for now, fantasy primary is fun eh?
Oh yeah, for those that care, Obama has peaked and Hillary will start to recover. Perhaps Obama in Iowa but then a string of wins for Hillary.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Anybody who looks like Paris Hilton, has an Ivy League degree, and has a nice daddy is OK with me. She has a nice blog too.
Sunday, December 16, 2007
The Des Moines Register has released its party endorsements for the Iowa Caucuses and the winners of that coveted nod are Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Also on the endorsement front, the Boston Globe, a newspaper widely read in next door New Hampshire, has aslo endorsed McCain as well as Barack Obama on the Democratic side:
Saturday, December 15, 2007
ARLINGTON, VA — Today over 100 retired admirals and generals endorsed John McCain for President of the United States at a press conference in Columbia, South Carolina. These distinguished leaders supporting John McCain come from all branches of the armed services and include former POWs, Medal of Honor recipients and former members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
John McCain was joined today in Columbia by five distinguished military veterans: Admiral Leighton "Snuffy" Smith, USN (Ret.); Vice Admiral Mike Bowman, USN (Ret.); Rear Admiral Tom Lynch, USN (Ret.); Rear Admiral Bob Shumaker, USN (Ret.); and Major General Stan Spears, USA, Adjutant General of South Carolina.
"This nation is at war and we'd better damn well understand that fact," said Admiral Leighton "Snuffy" Smith, USN (Ret.). "John McCain understands it, and he is the only candidate that has not wavered one bit in his position regarding the importance of victory in the war against Islamic extremism or in his commitment to the troops who are doing the fighting. He has consistently demonstrated the kind and style of leadership that we believe is essential in our next Commander in Chief. Our nation faces a growing array of serious foreign policy challenges. John McCain is the ONE candidate who, in our view, truly understands the strategic landscape and is fully prepared to deal decisively and effectively with those who wish to be our friends and, importantly, those who wish us harm."
John McCain thanked the admirals and generals, stating, "I am deeply honored to have the support of so many distinguished military leaders. I thank them for the trust they have in me, but more importantly, our nation is indebted to their service in defense of our freedom. Our next president will face two wars and an array of national security challenges around the world. My experience, knowledge and background have prepared me to confront these great challenges and lead as commander in chief from day one."
Source: Trans World News
Friday, December 14, 2007
McCain: In the next month, we have to do well in New Hampshire, period. We have to do well in New Hampshire. And whether that means win or not is up to the expectations of the media. But we have to do well in New Hampshire. We're struggling in Iowa, although we're working hard there. We're doing better in South Carolina.
I still believe that history since 1980 will still hold true, and that is that two of the first three states, when won by one of the candidates, will be the determining factor. I sense the pickup in momentum. I can sense it this morning. But I also know we have a long way to go to break out of the pack and I don't think, frankly, you and I will know what is going to happen until the last 24 hours, when you consider how many independent voters are going to break and the number of candidates that have some viability.
So I think we may be up late on January the 8th, and it's going to be fun every step of the way.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
"I’ve actually been saying for quite a few months now that I think that McCain, campaign troubles to the contrary, is still the most likely Republican nominee. Granted, this is all dependent on one thing: Mitt Romney loses both Iowa and New Hampshire"
Writer and pundit goes on to break out the series of events whereby Romney loses first three states and pulls out, Fred Thompson pulls out (and endorses McCain I think) and McCain goes head to head with Guiliani.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
According to an analysis of polls of head to head competition, only McCain enjoys the ability to beat Hillary or Obama. Only McCain.
Update: Op-ed by Jane Swift McCain is no ordinary hero
Update More Links:
Swift rips old foe, endorses McCainBoston Globe, United States - 18 hours agoDrawing an obvious contrast, Swift says she is supporting John McCain for the GOP nomination, in part because "he sticks to his beliefs, even when they are ...Former Mass. Governor says Romney is a flip-flopper Portsmouth Herald NewsSwift brands Mitt as ‘flip-flopper’ in column Boston HeraldSwift says Democrats will brand Romney ’flip-flopper’ Boston HeraldEyewitness News - The Union Leaderall 43 news articles
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
If so, then I for one think he should endore John McCain. I see the headline now, "Conservatives begin to coalesce around John McCain, Fred Thompson endorses for President"
Fanciful thinking? Perhaps not. He may wait until after Iowo that's all.
University of New Hampshire analyst Dante Scala pointed out, "The last time [in 2000] McCain was the maverick, and now he wants voters to look at him as the old reliable maverick, the guy with experience. I think he still has a chance."
Back on the bus, it was still like 2000. McCain talked into the night with a handful of reporters on anything and everything.
He said he was deeply troubled by what a woman in Marshalltown, Iowa, told him about illegal immigrants. "They all look alike," the woman said.
"That just makes you feel sad," he told the Daily News.
"There's a humane side to this issue," he added. "I'm just saying recognize that they're human beings who came to our country to create a better life."
From Northwest Indiana Real Estate: "We believe that John McCain will do more, much more than Rudy for real estate and housing"
Sunday, December 09, 2007
When asked about Iran and weapons of mass destruction: MCCAIN: "The military option is always the ultimate last option, but I don't believe that it's, quote, "off the table."
I would remind you that enrichment is a longer process. Weaponization, which is the other half of the equation, can be done rather rapidly.
Iran remains a nation dedicated to the extinction of the state of Israel. Iran continues to export the most lethal explosive devices into Iraq, killing Americans.
They continue to be a state sponsor of terror in the case of Hamas and Hezbollah. And they intend to — they continue to seek to exert influence throughout the entire region and the age-old ambition of Persian hegemony, including their increasing influence in the Basra area in southern Iraq.
So I think they remain a significant threat and challenge, and so, no, I wouldn't take the option, quote, "off the table," and I'm glad to see some of the European friends are staying in there with us in the need for sanctions."
I for one am happy to hear a leader still speaking and acting like a leader. I won't vote for someone who starts easing back their positions of security for our country just to sound nicer or to distance themselves from the current administration. Leadership requires stepping away and ahead of the followers and naysayers.
I will also add my two cents worth on the Veep selection, Kay Baily Hutchinson.
Saturday, December 08, 2007
I know it seems like McCain mania has gripped this blog over the last week, for that I apologize, but I with Indiana hosting a ridiculous May primary, I feel it's my only way to have any say in the primary election of our candidates.
Friday, December 07, 2007
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Today: New Hampshire Poll
Washington Post-ABC News PollWashington Post, United States - 7 hours ago12/3/07 Mitt Romney 37 John mccain 20 Rudy Giuliani 16 Mike Huckabee 9 Ron Paul 8 Fred Thompson 4 Duncan Hunter 1 Tom Tancredo
So, it may be under-reported but McCain has moved ahead of Giuliani and taken a solid 2nd place position in this state, the second primary. Romney makes his big "I am a Mormon" speech tomorrow, what then? Does he pick up more Republican support? Probably not, he may well have peaked in September.
Also, national poll shows Giuliani at 26% but McCain in second at 17%. So, nationally McCain is holding steady with front runner sliding, Huckabee gaining some ground, and Romney really not getting the traction he needs.
"McCain is still alive and kicking thanks to a fractured and flawed Republican field in which no candidate has yet sealed the deal. He's sneaked back into 2nd place nationally and is only 3 points out of second place in New Hampshire." From Real Clear Politics, though I think these polls they refer to are actually already pretty dated.
Hillary is screaming for government intervention in real estate foreclosures, do any of these candidates have the guts to say "Keep government out, encourage and empower churches and not for profits to work with homeowners, but keep government out!"
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
"Schilling said he considered supporting another Republican candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, "but at the end of the day, my belief has been in John McCain. We're in a bad place right now as a country, and I need someone I can trust to do what needs to be done."