Let's not choose some weird poll, let's go with Gallup today! The headline suggests that the race has tightened to 7 points, not the 4 points in my headline, but dig in and read the whole post to get the gist of the estimation they are doing.
So call just about anyone and Obama has only a 7 point nationwide lead, call likely voters and it's even less at 4%. This after the media told the world that Obama was running away with it, this after the media suggested that "everyone" was more comfortable with untested and inexperienced Obama when confronting the complex issues in the credit markets.
Right! This race has been and will be a toss-up, the winner being the candidate who's core supporters show up on election day. Ohio is going to be 50-50 and with some liberal judges kicking in some help, holding polls open for extra hours, we may be 12 plus hours late before we have a winner.
The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data
So call just about anyone and Obama has only a 7 point nationwide lead, call likely voters and it's even less at 4%. This after the media told the world that Obama was running away with it, this after the media suggested that "everyone" was more comfortable with untested and inexperienced Obama when confronting the complex issues in the credit markets.
Right! This race has been and will be a toss-up, the winner being the candidate who's core supporters show up on election day. Ohio is going to be 50-50 and with some liberal judges kicking in some help, holding polls open for extra hours, we may be 12 plus hours late before we have a winner.
3 comments:
Please, briefs. At least five national polls were posted today, and all show a fairly comfortable Obama lead. You pick the one with the closest results. Furthermore, at the rate McCain is behind to Obama in most of the other swing states, Ohio may not matter.
People are more comfortable with the stability of Obama over erratic McCain. What's his plan this week? Today? This evening?
And, really, I don't think you want to start talking about justices securing election results for a particular candidate. Not without acknowledging the 2000 election at least.
By the way, are you still predicting a 50-50 split in the Senate? ;)
Looks like it's been updated:
quote --> Among typical "likely voters" -- the subset of registered voters who appear most likely to vote on Election Day according to their current voting intentions and past voting behavior -- Obama's lead is a slightly narrower seven points, 51% to 44%.
Well, here's the latest, as of this morning:
Obama Widens Lead in MI, WI, MN, and CO (From WaPo)
Looks like McCain's relying on PA and NH as his only blue-red conversion possibilities. Not too good, given the number of states likely to be red-blue conversions (NM, IA, CO, VA, NV, MO, and probably FL). That's a lot of real estate to win back in three weeks, John.
Oh, and be sure to note second-to-last paragraph, where it notes that the CO senate seat is likely going to be a Dem pick-up. Add that to likely pickups for the Dems in VA, NM, NH, and possible ones in OR, NC, AK, and MN, and you can see why the spin from Republicans (including briefs!) is so hard to swallow...
Post a Comment