Monday, October 20, 2008

State polls show Ohio and Florida back to McCain

With the media spending all day talking up Obama, and talking about the Colin Powell endorsement, not much talk about Ohio and Florida where the polls have gone back to McCain.

This site is patently pro-Obama and was forced to show the poll results, even though they still show the electoral college with Obama getting both states. A little misleading at the least

We have nine presidential polls today.
Florida and Ohio, the two biggest swing states, are still swinging.
Today's polls put McCain ahead in Florida 49% to 47% and also ahead in
Ohio 46% to 45%, both statistical ties. Somewhat surprising is a new
poll in Montana in which McCain is leading by only 4 points in a state
Bush won by 20 points in 2004 and by 25 points in 2000. Together with
the statistical tie in North Dakota, it looks like a number of solid
Republican states may not be solid at all. Of course, a 4-point win in
Montana is as good as a 20-point win, but given the amount of money
Obama has and how cheap television time is in Montana, he could afford
a real blitz there.

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5 comments:

briefs said...

Yes I know "lots of other" polls show Obama ahead. Yes, I know this will mean lots of nit-picking over poll watching ... let's face it, this race isn't over and John Mccain has an unbelievable way of recovering.

Sure, I'll admit it, Obama can raise money like there's no tomorrow. In the midst of economic strife, he raised over $100 million last month, great campaign and great strategy.

But, do Americans want the $500 Million President because he can raise money? Or do they want strength overseas to stand up against terror? Or do they want a stop to socialism tendancies that take our rights and give them to government? You all get to vote, so do it!

andrew said...

Hey briefs, try reading the information on electoral-vote.com where the sitemaster explains how states get assigned a particular color. It's based on a scientific process that takes into consideration all the non-partisan polls for a particular time period. So, since the vast majority of non-partisan polls in Florida and Ohio show an Obama lead, the states are colored blue.

A lot less misleading and more scientific than the posts I read here...

briefs said...

Andrew, I'm there every day, and I agree that states are lagging indicators against the national polls. Basically about 10% of the voters for some reason want to vote for the eventual winner, so they change their votes depending on whom they hear is leading. It's a weird phenomenon, kinda akin to liking the Cubs when they look good, or the Cowboys when they are winning.

Perhaps we've turned into celebrity fans and don't want to be left off the next "cool train"

andrew said...

briefs, I agree that the whole "celebrity worship" this country has for its major politicians is not healthy. Instead of voting for the Next Big Thing (whether that be Obama OR Palin), people should really study what each stands for and make sure they're voting their beliefs and ethics.

You haven't addressed my concern, however. If you're at electoral-vote.com everyday, you surely are familiar with the scientific process by which the states are colored the way they are. So, how can you call the map or the site "misleading"? The few polls that have shown McCain with a lead in FL and OH are vastly outnumbered by the ones showing Obama leads.

Brewers fan, do or die,

andrew

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