A Look Ahead at Redistricting - From Hoosier Pundit
The Swing State Project, a lefty Democratic series of blogs, has a post up over the weekend about redistricting in Indiana. Putting on their "bizarro world GOP thinking cap", they drew up what they believe to be the most Republican Congressional map possible (the outcome they believe is likely from the upcoming redistricting process given state redistricting laws and GOP control of the Senate and the Governor's office). Note: Republicans would have to win back the House first, that's a map I'd really like to see.
They came up with the following map:
Described thus:
District 1 - Pete Visclosky (D-Merrillville) -- with all of Lake and Porter Counties, and nearly half of LaPorte, this is a quintessential Democratic seat along the lakeshore. Note: Is there ever a chance of a Republican in this district? Could Pete's troubles with fundraising come to roost if a solid contender came on the scene?
District 2 - Joe Donnelly (D-Granger) -- outside of Dem-leaning St. Joseph County being intact, there's little for Donnelly to like about this district. The Obama vote is still probably in the mid-40s here, but no doubt this is would be a Republican seat in most election cycles. Donnelly should take a serious look at statewide office if he gets dealt a hand like this.
District 3 - Mark Souder (R-Fort Wayne) -- solid GOP seat centered on Allen County.
District 4 - Steve Buyer (R-Monticello) -- I thought of diluting this hyper-GOP district a bit to hurt Ellsworth but realized that the lines would start to get bizarre and that, as mentioned in the intro, there are too many Democrats in western and southern Indiana to be cracked up without influencing at least one district.
District 5 - Dan Burton (R-Indianapolis) -- I think the current lines in this district are silly and prefer my more compact version, still safely Republican but not so "stretchy".
District 6 - Mike Pence (R-Columbus) -- to help the odious Pence just a tad (he doesn't need much), I gave Obama-supporting Madison County to Burton to split up the swingy/moderately Dem-friendly Anderson/Muncie/Richmond area between two GOP districts.
District 7 - André Carson (D-Indianapolis) -- entirely within Marion County, as before, and still strongly Democratic.
District 8 - Brad Ellsworth (D-Evansville) -- all Ellsworth seems to need to win easily is the combined electoral power of Terre Haute and Evansville, so putting on my bizarro world GOP thinking cap, knowing that it would be easier to dislodge Hill, I attempted to give Ellsworth an actual Democratic seat, one that would have voted for Obama. The coup de grâce, both for packing the 8th with Democrats and for cracking the 9th, was the addition of Monroe County (Bloomington) with its Obama-crazed college students. For a Republican mapmaker, making Ellsworth Congressman-for-life is a small price to pay for winning back the 9th (possibly with Mr. Déjà Vu himself, Mike Sodrel).
District 9 - Baron Hill (D-Seymour) -- He is likely toast as these lines are drawn, since his tougher battles (2002, 2004, 2006) were all made or broken by Dem GOTV in Bloomington. While the district lacked Bloomington back in its 1990s iteration, southeast Indiana was also very accustomed to Lee Hamilton back then, and Hill was clearly the beneficiary of some lingering Hamilton popularity both in 1998 and 2000. As for this take on the 9th, a couple of its Ohio River counties are traditionally Democratic, but the district is more rural and conservative than ever before, so conditions would be just right for Sodrel to finally triumph after losing three of his last four races against the venerable Hill. With a district this unfriendly, Hill might also consider statewide office. He ran respectably against Dan Coats in 1990...and Richard Lugar will be 80 years old in 2012. I'm just saying!
While this map is bad from a Dem standpoint, its worst possible scenario is a 6-3 GOP edge, not as bad as the 7-2 delegation seen between 2004 and 2006. Back then we fretted about the real possibility of 8-1, given Julia Carson's repeated underwhelming performance in the 7th...thanks to Indianapolis turning deep blue and most of southern Indiana moving into swing territory (with some clear Democratic strongholds), 6-3 seems bad in the context of Indiana circa 2009. So, from a broad perspective, Obama genuinely changed the game for the Democratic Party in Hoosierland. And who knows...by 2012, maybe even this unfriendly version of the 2nd District could be held.
It's sort of an article of faith among lefty blogs that the 2006 and 2008 elections represent a series of movements in an inexorable trend in their favor; Republicans made similar such assumptions based on their performances in 2002 and 2004.
I think it's rather foolhardy to assume that Democrats are going to continue to do as well in Indiana as they have in 2006 and 2008, given the weight that was holding down a lot of the normal traditional trending in the state. That weight is now gone; it will be interesting to see how much of a bounce-back manifests itself in 2010 and 2012.
If you wanted to base your maps on the Obama baseline (which I think is foolish, given that it was an atypical year with an atypical candidate), the best map that the Republicans can hope for is probably 6 to 3. But then, the Republicans learned the folly of basing their electoral strategies in 2006 and 2008 around the Bush-Cheney '04 baseline.
If 2010 shows a significant return to prior historical voting trends in Indiana, the GOP can probably draw a map that would go 7 to 2. Such a map would probably crack Democratic strongholds in Indianapolis, South Bend, and Bloomington (among others) among multiple districts (not just two). It wouldn't look anything like the current map, certainly, but it could be done.
Inherent in such a power play, though, is the risk of overreach. In Kentucky some time ago, the Democrats sought to draw a map on which they could win every seat (or all but one). In the process, they drew a map on which they lost (for a time) every single seat.
In that sense, 6 to 3 might be a safer map. But that also assumes that you want the 3 Democratic seats to be locks for the Democrats. You might not be able to draw a solid 7 to 2 advantage GOP map. But you might be able to draw a map that has 6 solid GOP seats, one swing seat, and two solid Democratic seats.
All things to look at, going forward into redistricting.
