From Frugal Hoosiers
Midnight was the deadline for federal candidates to raise first quarter money. Because Indiana’s primary is in early May, candidates here don’t have to file a first quarter report and get about an extra week before the deadline to file a pre-primary report. Candidates can file anytime between midnight and the filing deadline, but the collection deadline was still last night. Some big questions surround these reports as they will be the first reports for most candidates. Here’s a quick breakdown of what to look for in the next few weeks (note: we’ve tried to be objective):
U.S. Senate
On the Democrat side, Brad Ellsworth’s report will be interesting. Since the field has effectively been cleared for him, he shouldn’t have a problem raising money. But a big problem could be where the money is coming from and when. If you see a lot of contributions from D.C., out of state, from liberal PAC’s and organizations, and coming in right before the healthcare vote, then Ellsworth will easily be cast as someone who sold his healthcare vote to the highest bidders.
On the Republican side, this will be the chance for John Hostettler and Marlin Stutzman (and to a lesser extent, Don Bates and Richard Behney) to show their campaigns are deeper than their talking points. Hostettler in particular needs to show the media and Republican organizations that he’s more serious about this race than his race in 2006. If any of those four show relatively weak quarters, they probably won’t have the resources to really drive a message, and Dan Coats will only need a moderate quarter for the media to start handicapping the primary in his favor.
CD 2
Like Ellsworth, pay attention to where Joe Donnelly’s money comes from and when it came in. Don’t be surprised if he, too, is characterized as having sold his vote for healthcare. His apparent flip-flop-flip vote is already going to cause him to be vulnerable to such perceptions, and a report loaded with out of state contributions will only enhance them.
On the Republican side, a strong quarter from Jackie Walorski could seal up the perception that she’ll coast to victory in the primary and allow her to start focusing more on Donnelly. Jack Jordan has already been up on TV and radio, but many think he’s done it largely on his own dime. If Jordan’s fundraising outside his own contributions is deeper than speculated, he could be seen as having an outside shot on May 4.
CD 3
Like Jack Jordan, the perceptions surrounding Bob Thomas are that he has largely self-funded. If he has already given himself the $500,000 he said he would, expect to see a lot more attention on this race. But at the same time, if that’s the only place his money has come from, expect Mark Souder to be seen as fairly safe.
CD 4
Everyone expects this race to come down to Todd Rokita and Brandt Hershman. In reality, those are the only two fundraising reports that matter. If any of the other candidates pulls off a surprise and raises more than $100,000, they might be given a bit more credibility, but we don’t see it happening. The biggest question is who raises more and by how much. In the only poll that’s been leaked, Rokita was winning big on name ID across the district alone (note: it was a Rokita internal poll that was leaked). Hershman could start to gain momentum out if he outraises Rokita significantly, but if Rokita can post the $200,000+ he’ll need to sustain his TV buy and Hershman doesn’t beat him, then Rokita is in control of the race.
CD 5
Where to start? Expect Dan Burton to be the top dollar-getter. If not, things could get interesting and Burton should begin to worry that one of the 4 credible challengers could emerge to beat him. It probably won’t be Brose McVey or John McGoff, who haven’t shown fundraising strength so far. If neither has enough on-hand for TV ads, they will struggle to get into the double digits at the polls. Mike Murphy, we’re told, raised less this quarter because of the legislative session. Fundraising spikes come with going on TV, so it’s possible he’ll have enough to up his current small buy in April. Luke Messer is still the front runner among the challengers, and needs to post a huge quarter if he’s going to get around the conventional wisdom that this many challengers lets Burton slide through. Without a $200,000+ quarter, or without eclipsing Burton, it’s that much harder for a challenger to defeat the 28-year incumbent.
CD 8
Trent Van Haaften’s campaign has been off to a bad start. He hasn’t done anything, he’s refused to comment on current events like healthcare, and his announcement was poorly attended. A poor first finance report will only reinforce the notion that he’s in over his head in a race that’s likely to go Republican anyway. He may have some time to get things together since the GOP field is crowded, but that advantage is gone if one candidate can far outpace the field in fundraising. Expect Larry Bucshon to have the most cash, given his early start, but pay attention to Bob Lee Smith’s, too.
CD 9
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, pay attention to when and where Baron Hill got his cash. He has a history of taking lots of dough from House Democrat leadership and interested PACs right before big votes, and we suspect healthcare will be no different. On the Republican side, all eyes should be on Todd Young. Mike Sodrel has had the momentum since he got into the race in January, but a TV ad buy this week by Young could start stealing that momentum back. If this race is going to be competitive, Young will have to show that he can raise money even with Sodrel in the field. If he can’t, his chances will narrow.
