Sure it's a very strong probability that Michelle Bachman is done after tonight. Huntsman will try to hang in there through at least New Hampshire since he will say he didn't even try in Iowa. But the long and short after a full year of pre-primary campaigning and Republicans really don't know who they want to face off against President Obama. There's great dispute among the rank and file about who has the best chance to unseat the sitting President in a year that will feature an economic recovery.
It's a tough call, the supporters of Mitt Romney are well spoken and correct when they suggest he has the most money and having run for 5+ years is helping him greatly. Gingrich was the possible opponent until his supporters fouled the works by not getting enough legitimate signatures in Virginia. Then of course there are the Republican-of-the-week candidates, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain etc. Sure they pop up for a week or two only to drop again.
One particularly interesting trend will be, which candidate gets a second pop in the polls? Perry? Gingrich? or this week's version of Santorum? From my perspective no one wins when less than 25% of the attendees at caucus', events that feature less than 20% of the electorate, support each candidate. This is merely round one in a potential long slug fest. For those that love politics, this is great theater. For those that think politics are a waste of time, today will merely bolster their case.
Predictions:
- Romney - 23% claiming a win of course
- Santorum - 22% momentum but New Hampshire will stall him
- Paul - 20% grass roots but electability suspect
- Gingrich - 19% smartest guy in any room, but campaign organization is weak
- Perry - 11% Texas Governors not in high favor right now
- Bachman - 3% and leaves the campaign
- Huntsman - 1% and pretends he doesn't care
